Toan Phan

The views expressed on this website are mine and do not reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System

Formosa Steel Factory in Ha Tinh, Vietnam. Photo by Phan Luong Toan (my brother) on 31 Jan 2019. Video version.

Minicourse on Climate Macrofinance

Prepared for colleagues at the Bank of Japan in Sept 2021
Last updated for Notre Dame University in Apr 2022

Lecture 1: ABC of DICE
Based on Golosov et al ECTA 2014, Li et al QE 2016, Cai Lontzek JPE 2019

Lecture 2: Directed green R&D
Based on Acemoglu et al AER 2012 and Aghion et al JPE 2016
Related: Acemoglu et al JPE 2016, Acemoglu et al wp2019, Acemoglu et al NBERwp2018

Lecture 3: Empirical estimates of climate damages
Based on Dell et al AER:PP 2009, Dell et al AEJ:M 2012, Colacito et al JMCB 2019, Matthes and Phan 2021, Burke Emerick AEJ:EP 2016

Lecture 4: Empirical climate finance & Climate risks in U.S. financial system (nontechnical version)
Based on Bernstein et al JFE 2019, Baldauf et al RFS 2020, Kahn Oazad RFS forthcoming, and others
Nice review papers: Furukawa et al 2020, Hong et al 2020, Giglio et al 2021

Lecture 5: Asset Pricing of Disaster Risk: from Model to Big Data

National Climate Assessment 5: the inaugural Economics Chapter
"the most comprehensive federal effort to assess the state of climate science and communicate the impacts of climate change on people, communities, and ecosystems across the United States. For the first time ever, NCA5 includes a chapter on Economics, which highlights economic impacts and opportunities associated with climate action" (2023 White House's announcement)
NYT, WSJ, CNN, USA Today, Vox, Reuters, ABC News, NPR, CBS News, NPR 2025 update

Selected presentations and keynote lectures

Implications of Sea Level Rise for Real Estate & Financial Markets

- Research audience: 20 min keynote [2025]

- Research audience: 60 min keynote [2022; 2024 udpated version]

- General audience: 60 min keynote [2022]

- Financial Implications of Physical Climate Risks

5min NotebookLM podcasts on our research and on a "paradox" based on our JPE 2025

Climate seminars and workshops co-organized:

Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics (an ongoing series hosted by the San Francisco Fed)

Climate Economic Miniconference (Aug 2023, Richmond Fed, coorganized with Esteban Rossi-Hansberg)

OFR Climate Implications for Financial Stability conference (Sep 2022, virtual, coorganized with Dasol Kim)

Climate Change Economics (Nov 2020, virtual, Richmond Fed)

Climate Reading Group (virtual, coorganized with Christian Matthes)

Richmond Fed Economic Briefs

Sea Level Rise and Effects on House Prices (Nov 2025)

Economic and Human Impacts of Hurricanes (Dec 2024)

Hurricane Helene: Exposing Gaps in Flood Risk and Insurance (Nov 2024)

Assessing GSE Mortgage Portfolios’ Exposure to Past and Future Flood Risk (Jul 2024)

How Does Market Competition Affect Banks' Adaptation to Changes in Flood Risks? (Feb 2024)

A New Look at the Effects of Weather Shocks Over Time (Aug 2023)

Historical Redlining and Unequal Environmental Risks (Dec 2022)

Are Some Homebuyers Strategically Transferring Climate Risks to Lenders? (Apr 2022)

Pricing and Mispricing of Climate Risks in U.S. Financial Markets (Dec 2021)

Climate Change and Financial Stability? Recalling Lessons from the Great Recession (Aug 2021)

Podcast

Local Impacts of Global Weather Risks (May 2023)

Richmond Fed podcast on "Why economists care about climate change" (Nov 2022)

Richmond Fed podcast on "Climate change and financial markets" (July 2022)

Discussions

9. NBER SI EEE 2025: "Rebuild or Relocate? Recovery after Natural Disasters" by Shifrah Aron-Dine [slides]

8. Bank of Canada 2024 conference: "Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature" by Adrien Bilal and Diego Känzig [slides]

7. Banco de Chile 2023 Annual Conference: "The Macroeconomics of Climate Change" by Adrien Bilal and Jim Stock [slides]

6. Bundesbank 2023 Spring Conference: "Welfare Consequences of Sustainable Finance" by Harrison Hong, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang [slides]

5. ASSA 2023: "Credit Supply and Green Investments" by Accetturo et al [slides]

4. BOJ-IMES 2022 conference: "Climate Change Mitigation: How Effective is Green Quantitative Easing?" by Abiry, Ferdinandusse, Ludwig, Nerlich [slides]

3. System Climate Meeting 2022: "Climate Change & Geography of U.S. Economic Activity" by Leduc and Wilson [slides]

2. Bank of Italy 2021: “Macro Effects of Carbon Tax to Meet U.S. Paris Agreement Target: Role of Firm Creation and Technology Adoption” by Shapiro and Metcalf [slides]

1. IBEFA summer 2021: “The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing” by Correa, He, Herpfer, Lel [slides]

Selected notes on climate change economics

These are some lecture notes based on some recent development in the research literature that I prepared for myself and other researchers. The usual disclaimer applies. All errors are mine. Comments are welcome! I will continue to update and expand the set of notes.

1. Summary of recent evidence of macro and financial effects of climate change on the U.S.

2. ABCs of DICE and Golosov et al Econometrica 2014 Optimal Fossil Fuel Tax (+extensions)

3. Acemoglu et al American Economic Review 2012 Environment and Directed Technical Change

4. Weitzman's Dismal Theorem

5. Weitzman's Prices vs. Quantities

6. Bansal et al Climate Change Risk

7. [Incomplete] notes on recent papers on housing prices & sea level rise

7. [Very very incomplete] notes on a selected few papers on adaptation

Selected notes prepared by research assistants and students

Natural disasters

Strobl Restat 2011 "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from US Coastal Counties" [Ryan]

Bakkensen Barrage wp 2019 "Climate Shocks, Cyclones, and Economic Growth: Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap" [Ryan]